https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/why-gender-ideology-cant-survive

The gist of this article seems to be "Most leftist causes are supported by evidence and can be debated, but trans ideology is only as popular as it is because of aggressive censorship of anyone who disagrees. A relaxation of this censorship on Twitter will lead to vastly more people talking about it and seeing how ridiculous it is."

If Elon Musk does not buy Twitter, or does buy Twitter and the de facto content moderation policies do not become less restrictive towards criticism of the trans movement, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise, this market resolves based on my entirely subjective judgement of whether Richard's claim seemed true.

If at the beginning of 2028 it looks to me like the trans movement has lost significant ground relative to other leftist causes, this resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. I'll consult the community before resolving, in case other people have had different experiences from me.

In order to differentiate between Twitter causing this change vs. a change that was going to happen anyway, see this companion market for the case where Twitter remains unchanged: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-richard-hanania-article-o-0b909fcda930