Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?
➕
Plus
174
Ṁ980k
resolved Dec 25
Resolved
NO

Since people were being no fun on the last market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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predicted NO

As promised (and rounding up)

predicted NO

For anyone who was disappointed at the lack of accepted bribes in this market, I have a consolation offer.

predicted YES

@a A glimpse of things to come

predicted NO

@a A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed. Due to a bug, they ended up with both positive and negative shares, so they asked me to reopen the market for a moment so they could place a M$1 bet to make their shares cancel, and I obliged. I'll resolve the market once they're done transferring shares.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing Interesting, challenge bets seem quite buggy.

predicted NO

@a Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.

Also props on the quick M$10 bet. I'll refund you for that. :)

predicted NO

FYI, the reason we were trying to transfer shares was to make the profit shown in the market more accurate, because we had a group that participated in a joint investment and we ended up with shares split very unevenly across different people. In other words, we were doing it to avoid accidentally boosting one person up on the leaderboard and another person down unfairly.

@IsaacKing Interesting, I was not able to replicate that bug on /Yev/will-there-be-any-trades-on-this-ma before I resolved it.

predicted NO

Also, my own profits ended up inaccurate on this market because I didn't have enough liquid mana to move the shares due to the aforementioned bug. I instead fixed the discrepancy by transferring shares on the derivative market https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-isaac-kings-69-market-resolve. Just in case anyone sees my weird profit numbers on these two markets and is wondering what's going on - this is all honest and aboveboard to try to make the profits accurate.

predicted NO

@Austin is working on a feature for a new market type (certificates/stocks) that I think will help with this sort of thing - when forming a joint venture, one could invest in a stock, and then the stock could pay out the profits as dividends.

predicted NO

Only 6 minutes left for bribes!

predicted NO

M6.9 for resolving N/A

predicted YES

@XComhghall I will reveal my troo identity if you don't rezolve it till 1/5/2023

predicted YES

@Spindle u also have to then rezolve it so I get my traunches back

@Spindle That's a pretty good bribe! Unfortunately it came in just a little too late.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing i'm sure u can find a way to get my traunches back. If u cant then my identity will be 4ever a MYSTERY

predicted NO

@IsaacKing I think the market should be resolved by now?

predicted NO

@Homer There were people (on both sides I believe) who asked for the market to remain open until the original close date. Partly this is to avoid technically modifying the resolution criteria - if it resolves early, then that technically changes the "time it remains open". I really doubt anyone would actually object on that basis, but it's still safer just to wait. And this is one reason why I like making references to an explicit deadline rather than the "close date".

predicted YES

Seriously? 99.7% that it is not going to happen? You all collectively think that something like "author of a meme market expands its duration for the memes and drama" happens once in 300 timelines? Why? Because he has "trustworthy-ish" badge? No.

I know why.

Greed.

You are willing to place 10000M at risk for a mere another 30M, and you want to place more. You are deaf to the voice of rationale and truth. You don't care about the calibration of your probabilities or the sanity of your beliefs. You just want a little more fake bucks in your pocket.

I think it would be a good lesson to extend the duration of a market. Lesson for everyone. 1 More step to cure our community from the ancient disease. Even if it would mean doing something that Moloch would be mad at.

I am speaking to you @IsaacKing : do the right thing, I believe in you

predicted YES

@9d58 Do the right thing, buy 10000 mana into Yes. I believe in you.

Isaac in particular has a reputation of caring a lot about resolving correctly. If you want to bet on your stated beliefs, I've offered a limit order at 1%.

@9d58 I think you are just projecting. Not everyone is a Liar like you 😝

predicted YES

Just resolve and end my misery please

@Norman I've found a market where YES team can have a little victory (totally not promoting it for my own gains) https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-get-at-least-100-u-d9e20cc8a170?referrer=9d58

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