Will this market's probability be 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?
17
44
350
resolved Jan 17
Resolved
NO

Rounded to the nearest integer percentage, or whatever rounding scheme the graph uses.

Inspired by /Conflux/will-i-publish-my-blog-post-about-t

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Total, 30d 18h 17m 37s, 2657857s

2657857s × .69 = 1,833,921.33s

Resolve to YES if

  • ≥ 69% for ≥ 21d 5h 25m 21.33s (1833921.33s), equivalently,

  • < 69% for < 9d 12h 52m 15.67s (823935.67s).

‘Rounded to the nearest integer percentage, or whatever rounding scheme the graph uses.’

predicted YES

Ok fine, here's one where 0% isn't the only stable point.

predicted YES

Aww. That's no fun guys.

sold Ṁ10 of NO

@IsaacKing Good point