Will this market's probability be 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?
Will this market's probability be 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?
17
350Ṁ18k
resolved Jan 17
Resolved
NO

Rounded to the nearest integer percentage, or whatever rounding scheme the graph uses.

Inspired by Will I publish my blog post about the number 69 this week?YES

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2y

Total, 30d 18h 17m 37s, 2657857s

2657857s × .69 = 1,833,921.33s

Resolve to YES if

  • ≥ 69% for ≥ 21d 5h 25m 21.33s (1833921.33s), equivalently,

  • < 69% for < 9d 12h 52m 15.67s (823935.67s).

2y

‘Rounded to the nearest integer percentage, or whatever rounding scheme the graph uses.’

predictedYES 2y

Ok fine, here's one where 0% isn't the only stable point.

predictedYES 2y

Aww. That's no fun guys.

2y

@IsaacKing Good point

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