Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?
Plus
14
Ṁ4103000
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902
This market resolves YES if such an award is paid. (Including if the amount changes, as long as it's clearly still the same award.) This does not include his related offer of "a smaller award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing while still leaving it open."
It resolves NO if Scott announces that scalable quantum has been conclusivly demonstrated as possible and the award is impossible to win.
If the award is invalidated for any other reason, this resolves N/A.
For a market that includes his smaller awards, see here:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?
18% chance
Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?
When will Scott Aaronson write about Shanghai University's claim to have broken RSA with D-Wave's quantum computer?
When will Quantum computing become viable?
2034
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
30% chance
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
56% chance
Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
69% chance
Will Scott Alexander make a 6+ digit bet related to COVID, by EOY 2024?
16% chance
Will Scott Aaronson write about Quantum Economics before 2026?
11% chance
Will a plausible post-quantum proof obfuscator be found by end of 2024?
30% chance