Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?
13
145
Ṁ333Ṁ250
3000
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902
This market resolves YES if such an award is paid. (Including if the amount changes, as long as it's clearly still the same award.) This does not include his related offer of "a smaller award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing while still leaving it open."
It resolves NO if Scott announces that scalable quantum has been conclusivly demonstrated as possible and the award is impossible to win.
If the award is invalidated for any other reason, this resolves N/A.
For a market that includes his smaller awards, see here:
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
90% chance
Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?
60% chance
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
49% chance
When will Quantum computing become viable?
2029
Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?
Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?
18% chance
Will IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?
61% chance
Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
64% chance
Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?
35% chance
Will any corporate quantum computing team report 2 or more simultaneous 2-qubit gates with >= 99.9% fidelity by 2025?
81% chance