Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?
Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?
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https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902
This market resolves YES if such an award is paid. (Including if the amount changes, as long as it's clearly still the same award.) This does not include his related offer of "a smaller award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing while still leaving it open."
It resolves NO if Scott announces that scalable quantum has been conclusivly demonstrated as possible and the award is impossible to win.
If the award is invalidated for any other reason, this resolves N/A.
For a market that includes his smaller awards, see here:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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