In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?
2
125Ṁ55
2030
55%
2028 or earlier
12%
2029–2030
12%
2031–2032
12%
2033 or later
7%
Not demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035

📌 Description :

This market resolves based on the first public demonstration of a quantum computer achieving ≥1,000 logical qubits.

A valid demonstration must include:

• Explicit identification of logical qubits (error-corrected, not physical qubits),

• Evidence of fault-tolerant operation (e.g. sustained error correction),

• Public disclosure via peer-reviewed paper, preprint, or official announcement by a recognized organization (company, research lab, or government agency).

Simulations, estimates, or purely theoretical proposals do not count.

📌 Resolution Criteria :

• The market resolves to the option corresponding to the calendar year in which the first qualifying demonstration is publicly disclosed.

• If no such demonstration occurs by 31 December 2035, resolve to: “Not demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035.”

• If multiple announcements occur close in time, the earliest verifiable public disclosure determines resolution.

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@Jaden Maybe rename this to 2033–2035?

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