Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Question

https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902

This market resolves YES if any such award is paid, of any amount.

It resolves NO if Scott announces that scalable quantum has been conclusivly demonstrated as possible and the award is impossible to win.

If the award is invalidated for any other reason, this resolves N/A.

For a market that's only about his full $100,00 award that scalable quantum computing is impossible, see here:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-scott-aaronson-ever-pay-out-hi)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 18% chance (11 traders, as of Oct 16, 2024).