Will Protonmail have any serious problems before 2035?
5
1kṀ87
2035
53%
chance

A serious problem is any of the following:

  • Any permanent loss of stored email contents.

  • Any service disruption that lasts for at least 12 hours and results in outbound emails being lost with no bounce notification, or inbound emails being lost in any way.

  • Any service disruption that lasts for at least 72 hours and results in users being unable to read emails in their normal client, or unable to send emails.

  • A security breach caused by illicit access (not a Swiss court order), which results in private user data being shared without their permission.

  • The Swiss government becomes able to legally read email contents.

In all cases the issue must affect at least 1% of all users (or all active users). It also must be ProtonMail's fault, not e.g. those users all happening to have spyware.

I may modify this list to improve it, but not in response to something that just happened.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy