In 10 years, will there be a blackmail-resistant messenger?

110Ṁ733

2034

14%

chance

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Before January 13, 2034, will there be a messenger used by >50 million people that won’t disclose user data outside its normal procedures even someone is held hostage by a government.

If a messenger is not the core functionality of something, it still counts if >50m people use messages.

Resolves Yes if a messenger like this exists at any point before January 13, 2034.

Otherwise, resolves No.

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https://simplex.chat exists.

But 50m is, well.. an ambitious number

SimpleX Chat: private and secure messenger without any user IDs (not even random)

SimpleX Chat - a private and encrypted messenger without any user IDs (not even random ones)! Make a private connection via link / QR code to send messages and make calls.

Signal reported 40M MAU in 2022. I think it would certainly count if it got 50M MAU by 2034, even if you don't trust the bigger E2E messengers like WhatsApp or Telegram.

@ducat any user data counts, including user IP addresses or phone numbers, not just the messages

@ms I see. Are any of the following part of your threat model?
- the government takes over the service and forces them to log IP addresses
- passive traffic analysis

@ducat it may collapse due to lack of ~NSA~ funding or something.

@ducat Depends on the nature of the take over. To cause a positive resolution, it should be impossible for a government to take over/get access by taking hostages.