
In 10 years, will there be a blackmail-resistant messenger?
7
110Ṁ7332034
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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Before January 13, 2034, will there be a messenger used by >50 million people that won’t disclose user data outside its normal procedures even someone is held hostage by a government.
If a messenger is not the core functionality of something, it still counts if >50m people use messages.
Resolves Yes if a messenger like this exists at any point before January 13, 2034.
Otherwise, resolves No.
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https://simplex.chat exists.
But 50m is, well.. an ambitious number
Signal reported 40M MAU in 2022. I think it would certainly count if it got 50M MAU by 2034, even if you don't trust the bigger E2E messengers like WhatsApp or Telegram.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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