Will Signal be revealed to have a major undisclosed vulnerability by 2035?
5
100Ṁ80
2034
42%
chance

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2035, it is publicly revealed that the Signal messaging application contained a security vulnerability that was:

  • Previously known to Signal's development team

  • NOT publicly disclosed within 90 days of discovery

  • Later revealed through whistleblowing, investigative reporting, leaked documents, or official admission

  • Classified as High or Critical severity (CVSS 7.0+) or could have compromised user privacy/message confidentiality

Examples that would trigger YES:

  • Internal Signal documents leaked showing they knew about a vulnerability but didn't disclose it

  • Former Signal employees revealing they were aware of security issues that weren't made public

  • Government agencies admitting they had knowledge of Signal vulnerabilities they didn't report

  • Academic researchers revealing they privately reported vulnerabilities that Signal never acknowledged publicly

Exclusions:

  • Vulnerabilities that were properly disclosed through responsible disclosure processes

  • Issues discovered and patched before any third party became aware

  • Theoretical vulnerabilities never actually present in released versions

  • False claims or unsubstantiated allegations

The market resolves NO if no credible evidence emerges of such undisclosed known vulnerabilities by the deadline.

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