Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

#Biotech #Biology

182

Ṁ637

Ṁ1k

2029

35%

chance

ALL

Resolves Yes if, on the close date, the balance of evidence is that it is possible for one person to spread BCS3-L1 from one person's mouth to another, without doing any preparation beforehand, essentially just by kissing. I will resolve based on my own judgement of what the balance of evidence says. I will not bet.

For context: The FAQ document provided by Lantern bioworks says

Will this spread to everyone I kiss? It’s very unlikely in non-immunocompromised adults

So this would be a no by default. But if there is a confirmed instance of a mouth-to-mouth transmission which seems more credible than not, this would resolve YES.

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predicts NO

Traders may be interested in a podcast I recorded with the founder where we discuss this possibility: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPyZt3EJCFM

predicts YES

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Virulence-properties-of-Streptococcus-mutans.-Banas/3106cd8481fe2fc3d351e900d30e9db4d8566b63

bought Ṁ50 of YES

https://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2008-01/germ-could-save-your-life/

The regulators saw a genetically modified bacteria that was robust enough to take over any person’s mouth, and they were worried about its unchecked spread.

This Germ Could Save Your Life

It's a drizzly morning on New York's Upper East Side, and Rockefeller University microbiologist David Thaler is sipping a double espresso amid the retro-hippie pillows and dangling paper stars of Java Girl, a favorite haunt of the neighborhood's brainiac Nobel laureates, aging poets and famous entertainers. Thaler somehow manages to embody all three—a long, graying ponytail curling down the middle of his back, wire-frame glasses askew over expansive brown eyes, and a schnozz to rival an Einstein, Ginsberg or Allen. Thaler is one of the leading cheerleaders for a new field of biotechnology aimed at engineering the bacteria inside us to deliver drugs, destroy tumors, actively fight infection, and even vaccinate against their disease-causing kin.

It is possible, but very unlikely. What are you looking for more than that?

@Odoacre Hmm, I see how the quote I posted is confusing. I interpreted as "it is unlikely that it is possible", but perhaps it means "every time you kiss someone, there is a positive but small chance of transmission".

I think a single confirmed instance of a mouth-to-mouth transmission is what I'm going for. If I am just not read up on this and that actually exists already, I'll resolve YES.