Feel free to try to convince me in order to manipulate the market. Though given how high /IsaacKing/will-i-hear-of-anyone-in-the-us-or is, I probably won't engage with such arguments.
Related questions
In general, for anyone with anything resembling suicidal thoughts, I recommend this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7OGY1Jxp3o.
"It gets better" is sort of a cliché maybe, but it's also straight-up true in most cases. Whatever is "the thing" right now, may feel like a big deal right now, but some time from now it won't. And I say that on a general basis, not just to Isaac in particular.
As to the WvM market (some of us - myself included - have it in us to go a bit overboard sometimes 🙃), I hope people realize that this just really isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things 🙂
@TorBarstad exactly, nothing's a big deal in the grand scheme of things. none of us are
@Hamm "In the event of one of my market titles+descriptions containing resolution criteria that clearly and unambiguously conflict with the spirit of the market, I will follow the criteria in the title+description. In the event of ambiguous or contradictory criteria, I will follow the spirit of the market as I believe I have conveyed it to traders in that market. I offer bounties to people for helping me head off contested resolutions before they occur. More info here: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-i-pay-out-at-least-10-bounties I have the "Trustworthy. Ish." badge, which means I can resolve other people's abandoned markets. Feel free to tag me on a market that needs resolving for me to take a look at it." per his bio
@Sinclair I appreciate the concern. If the answer were "no", I could not safely provide that answer here. Thus decision-theoretic considerations compel me to decline to answer this question regardless of what true answer is.
I will however note that the ex ante probability that I would create this market is largely independent of the probability that I am planning on committing suicide.
@IsaacKing well, I promise to keep secrets about self-harm/suicide that are dm'ed to me (like via discord) even if I think the person will actually seriously hurt themselves.
I'm over it now, but back in 2017 I was struggling with depression / suicidal ideation. I was paranoid about involuntary commitment, so I made my best friend promise not to tell anyone else, before I told her. She cared about me a lot and didn't take it very well, and I think that misunderstandings and stress caused by keeping it a secret played a part in the dissolution of our friendship. I still resent that the confidentiality of doctors or priests doesn't cover this.
But even without some interesting personal backstory it seems straightforwardly the right game-theory to keep secrets like this.
Caveat: Scott's article on depression claims that involuntary commitment is unlikely in practice.
What do people think we should do about markets like this if they were actually serious.
People will sometimes mention their intent of suicide/leave a suicide note on Twitter for example as a cry for help/a goodbye.
This is allowed on Twitter. I also would be hesitant to take any action on Manifold (definitely don't want to do anything to silence the person), but am slightly fearful that on Manifold it is quite different to Twitter due to there being a probability attached to it that people can bet on.
@DavidChee Please note that this market is serious in that it will actually resolve to YES if I commit suicide, and will actually resolve to NO if I don't, and I don't plan to resolve it N/A unless I'm forced to by Manifold admins or legal concerns.
@DavidChee As for what to do with other people whose markets may have a higher probability, I think linking to suicide prevention resources is a good idea. And if they've been a member of the Manifold community for a while, other community members could try to get in contact with them.
See here for something similar that happened several years ago.
@DavidChee Mentioned below: I think markets discussing suicide should link to suicide prevention resources. This can save lives.
Also, if you are able to contact authorities you may save someone's life. Or you could end up hurting someone because it was a prank. Big social media companies have people in place to handle this type of thing Manifold is tiny, so nobody should expect the same level of response.
I think what to do about the market itself is less important, as long as you don't hide it.
I think what to do about the market itself is less important, as long as you don't hide it.
Why don't you think they should hide it? I was surprised this didn't get unlisted the moment SitSalty saw it.
@IsaacKing Hiding it could decrease the chance of someone else seeing the market and using that to save someone's life.
I could be wrong, I'm not sure of current best practice in this area.
@MartinRandall Some people do attempt suicide for attention, so hiding their markets could remove that incentive. The mod who hides the market could also use that opportunity to link them to suicide prevention resources.
However that would prevent community members from seeing it and potentially getting into contact with them.
@IsaacKing Thinking about it further, if someone is making a cry for help, it's probably a good thing to let other people hear it.