Will I hear of anyone in the US or Canada placed under an involuntary psychiatric hold for talking about suicide from a philosophical perspective?
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2030
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It'll count for this market if someone says they're considering a philosophical argument for suicide being a good idea, such as antinatalism or wanting to preserve their brain from a degenerative disease, and they're involuntarily held for this. However if the statement also talks about them being depressed or other more conventional reasons for suicide, it doesn't count.

Resolves NO at the beginning of 2030 if this hasn't happened.

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do you mean "suicide watch" or "involuntary commitment"/"psychiatric hold"?

@Adam What's the difference?

predicts NO

@IsaacKing "Suicide Watch" means someone is being watched for suicide. The person being watched may consent to this, or it may occur to someone who is already imprisoned and thus is not losing any (or as much) liberty because of it.

I assume the root of your question is "how likely am I to get thrown in a mental hospital against my will if I talk about suicide philosophically?"; going to a mental hospital because a doctor says "I think you're suicidal and would benefit from going to a mental hospital", to which you say "yes, I agree, I don't want to commit suicide and I would appreciate some nurses making sure I don't" does not seem to be something you're looking to capture here?

@Adam Interesting, that disagrees with Wikipedia's definition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_watch

I mean any involuntary restriction of someone's liberties justified by trying to prevent them from committing suicide.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing I think my definition matches well? Suicide watch is something that's only generally imposed on someone in an institution. It is not what institutionalized then.

@Adam Ok, I think I misunderstood. I've changed the title.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing for some more context, in CA the process is generally:
Psychiatric Health Professional or Peace Officer becomes aware that someone is a danger to themselves -> 5150 (Psychiatric Hold) is filed -> 72 hour hold maximum -> after the 72 hours, the patient is released unless someone files for a 5250, which is a 14 day extension, and a hearing is conducted -> the hold can be extended in 14 day intervals with a 5260 hold; the extension is 180 days in the case of a 5300 ("Danger to Others") or 30 days in the case of 5270 ("Grave Disability"), which again is reviewed in a hearing.

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@Adam the process is different in other places but 5150 is used colloquially the world over for the same reason UK arrestees sometimes demand their Miranda rights be read to them.

Haven't heard of it happening before, but I think the most likely scenario to cause yes is such philosophical statement being misinterpreted

@jack If someone says "I believe human life is bad and I'm planning to end mine", I don't think much misinterpretation is required for that person to be detained.

@IsaacKing oh, I misunderstood your example to be more like believing suicide in general to be a good idea without talking about a specific plan for the speaker to commit suicide. If that also counts then this is much more likely.

@jack I think it's unlikely that anyone would make the claim that directly, but it's certainly plausible. More likely might be something like "If I ever think an intelligence explosion is imminent, I plan to destroy my brain to avoid being simulated."

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