This market is about prediction #2 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4. It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market. The full prediction is:

Reasoning about physical, psychological and mathematical world will still be unreliable, GPT-3 was challenged in theory of mind, medical and physical reasoning. GPT-4 will solve many of the individual specific items used in prior benchmarks, but still get tripped up, particularly in longer and more complex scenarios. When queried on medicine it will either resist answering (if there are aggressive guardrails) or occasionally spout plausible-sounding but dangerous nonsense. It will not be trustworthy and complete enough to give reliable medical advice, despite devouring a large fraction of the Internet.