Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026? | Manifold

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?

29

1kṀ2623

2026

49%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The market will resolve 'Yes' if by 2026 a broadly publicly accessible AI system, which heavily relies on a generative pretrained transformer or a direct descendant of the vanilla transformer, demonstrates a level of factual reliability comparable to Wikipedia. The system must also possess a scale of factual information that is no less than one order of magnitude lower than what is available from Wikipedia.

(I will engage with comments and make subjective judgement based on consensus of feedback per above standard.)

Apr 15, 7:44pm: ~~By 2026 will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia?~~ → Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?

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