Hmm, I think people forgot to account for the chance that Manifold would remove loans. I don't think a market on that fact directly would have been this low.

@IsaacKing 7 days have passed since the price dropped below 90%, can be resolved now.

I wanna hedge out quite a bit here - there's a large 40% yes order for anyone who wants it.

Oops - I'm gonna get crushed by the change to the loan system. I didn't notice that. I expect it is quite possible that it will spend a week below 90% given the length of time until it resolves.

@ChrisPrichard I actually think this will still resolve no. No holders will want to sell their shares too.

@Joshua I hope you're right! Though this market provides a lot of incentive for @Bair to push it below 90% and keep it there for a week, so we'll see!

@ChrisPrichard I don't have the mana to keep it below 90% on my own.

@Bair Depends on how much people "resist" your bets, I suppose!

@ChrisPrichard What are the changes to the loan system (or to anythhing else)? There doesn't seem to be a good centralised source of information :(

@AngolaMaldives no loans after April.
https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10

@Bair Ah, thank you. Maybe they should link this on the homepage?

@AngolaMaldives yeah, that would be nice indeed.

For reference