Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
46
1.3K
Ṁ9KṀ890
2030
2%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth. An adopted child would also count.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
I'd guess Eliezer wouldn't want to have kids in general given his high confidence in AI killing us soon, plus that he seems to think babies aren't sentient and that sentience is very central to value. So he'd expect a large portion of his child's life would be valueless (except for instrumental reasons).
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on The Ezra Klein Show podcast by the end of 2024?
25% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky have at least 200,000 followers on Twitter by the end of 2024?
70% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
63% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella start dating during the next 3yrs?
9% chance
Will Eliezer Yudowsky become romantically involved with an AI before 2030?
16% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky go on the Mindscape podcast by the end of 2024?
14% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?
46% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get fully blaked before 2027?
23% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get an op-ed in the NY Times or Washington Post by the end of 2024?
26% chance