Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
46
9.0k
2030
2%
chance

Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth. An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate. (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)

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If this market resolves based on the time of conception, and an adopted child would also count, then couldn't this market theoretically suddenly resolve YES in the year 2047, if they adopted a seventeen year old child?

@ForTruth Good catch. Fixed.

I have insider info: they said it's more likely for Aella to bear a John Von Neumann clone by that date.

I'd guess Eliezer wouldn't want to have kids in general given his high confidence in AI killing us soon, plus that he seems to think babies aren't sentient and that sentience is very central to value. So he'd expect a large portion of his child's life would be valueless (except for instrumental reasons).