Will Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
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Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth. An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate. (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)
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I'd guess Eliezer wouldn't want to have kids in general given his high confidence in AI killing us soon, plus that he seems to think babies aren't sentient and that sentience is very central to value. So he'd expect a large portion of his child's life would be valueless (except for instrumental reasons).
“instrumental reasons”.. like sleeping with Aella 😂
https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-have-a-baby-by-the-end-of-20
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