Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous? | Manifold

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?

26

1kṀ1056

2039

49%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Self-Driving Vehicles

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bought Ṁ30 YES10mo

Fully automated but possible to drive manually, right?

@RemNi Could be, but they don't have to be.

What level of full autonomy? L5? I consider L5 in particular extremely unlikely. I can see L3 or maaaaybe L4 happening regionally, outside the snowbelt.

I'd say 85% L2, 45% L3, 20-25% L4, 5% L5. Waiting to bet until clarification.

@MrMayhem I assume @JacyAnthis means L5, unless they're secretly Elon Musk.

This is based on a Metaculus question, which specifies L4.

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