This market will resolve yes if, on Jan 1, 2028, Americans are able to legally trade online on elections.

Further details, in case the answer falls in a "gray area":

The market will resolve "yes" if election betting is de facto legal -- meaning that Americans are welcomed on an online exchange with operations in the United States.

For example, if election betting is available for new customers on PredictIt.org, Kalshi.com, or anything similar, then this will resolve yes.

Note: If ONLY the "Iowa Electronic Markets" is taking bets under a "no action" letter, I will resolve this as "no," because the market is so small and limited, has a $500 limit, and requires users to physically mail in a form and a check.

If Americans have to use VPNs to bet, this will resolve as "no."

Added clarification May 13: This is for real money betting. If Americans can only do play money betting with some contests/prizes, this will resolve to “no.” Added May 13 9pm: USD contests/prizes will still resolve to "no." Unless trading on Manifold becomes effectively the same as trading on a stock exchange (which is how PredictIt, for example, is) with predictable and directly-proportionate payouts that can be easily converted to USD, this market will resolve to "no."