This market will resolve yes if, on Jan 1, 2028, Americans are able to legally trade online on elections.
Further details, in case the answer falls in a "gray area":
The market will resolve "yes" if election betting is de facto legal -- meaning that Americans are welcomed on an online exchange with operations in the United States.
For example, if election betting is available for new customers on PredictIt.org, Kalshi.com, or anything similar, then this will resolve yes.
Note: If ONLY the "Iowa Electronic Markets" is taking bets under a "no action" letter, I will resolve this as "no," because the market is so small and limited, has a $500 limit, and requires users to physically mail in a form and a check.
If Americans have to use VPNs to bet, this will resolve as "no."
Added clarification May 13: This is for real money betting. If Americans can only do play money betting with some contests/prizes, this will resolve to “no.” Added May 13 9pm: USD contests/prizes will still resolve to "no." Unless trading on Manifold becomes effectively the same as trading on a stock exchange (which is how PredictIt, for example, is) with predictable and directly-proportionate payouts that can be easily converted to USD, this market will resolve to "no."
Related questions
@EvanDaniel Added clarification May 13: This is for real money betting. If Americans can only do play money betting with some contests/prizes, this will resolve to “no.”
@EvanDaniel I'm not familiar enough with their plans, but isn't this statement pretty clear? "If Americans can only do play money betting with some contests/prizes, this will resolve to “no.”"
@EvanDaniel maybe it wasn't clear that I mean even USD contests/prizes will still resolve to "no." Unless trading on Manifold becomes effectively the same as trading on a stock exchange (which is how PredictIt, for example, is) with predictable and directly-proportionate payouts that can be easily converted to USD, this market will resolve to "no."
@MaximLott Yeah, that doesn't clarify much. Presumably because the rules that Manifold is trying to skirt are a lot like your question criteria. I'm pretty sure I want to avoid betting on this question at least for as long as you want to avoid reading the rules I'm asking about clarification on.
@EvanDaniel I’m unclear how it doesn’t clarify. Can you give me an example of a scenario you think might qualify despite the clarification?
@MaximLott Does the post-pivot Manifold approach qualify or not? If that's not clear, what questions would you need answered to determine whether or not it qualifies?
@EvanDaniel The “post pivot Manifold” doesn’t exist yet, so how can I tell you? If you tell me specifically what mechanism you think might be “real money betting”, I can tell you whether that counts for market resolution. I thought I already clarified for all such mechanisms I’ve heard of, but maybe not.
@MaximLott "post-pivot manifold" has been described in some detail, but obviously not exhaustive detail. If that isn't enough detail for you to form an opinion, what's lacking?
@MaximLott Which detail? What's lacking?
AFAICT, both Manifold as it exists today and Manifold as it is reasonably expected to exist in a few days are "real money betting". I can bet with real money, it's something other than the IEM, etc., etc. If the due date was "now", and I were resolving it, I'd resolve it as "YES" on that basis, regardless of the status of Kalshi or PredictIt. Ditto if the date was three days from now, assuming there were no new rulings from the CFTC or other relevant bodies in that time.
Is that how you would judge it in those hypotheticals, or no?