Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if the U.S. Senate passes the BETS OFF Act (Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions), which would prohibit wagers on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome, or any other Senate-passed legislation that substantially restricts prediction markets before June 1, 2026. Resolution is based on whether the Law passes into law. Check the Senate's official voting records at Congress.gov for final passage votes.
Background
Senator Chris Murphy and House Representative Greg Casar announced their intent to introduce the BETS OFF Act after bettors cashed in on geopolitical conflicts, including joint strikes the US and Israel launched against Iran and the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Polling from Data for Progress reveals a majority of voters – including 61% of independents and 57% of Republicans – support banning wagers on potential government actions. At least six bills targeting prediction markets have been introduced in 2026, though most have originated in the House and have been led almost exclusively by Democrats. The Schiff-Curtis bill is the first to combine Senate-level authority with genuine bipartisan co-sponsorship, giving it a potentially clearer path through the Republican-controlled chamber.
Considerations
The Trump administration has thrown its support behind prediction markets as they face state-level challenges, and members of the Trump family are reportedly invested in at least one of the major platforms. Two competing coalitions have emerged, with the Coalition for Prediction Markets launching in December and arguing that their federal regulatory framework is "under attack" by states. The bipartisan Senate bill from Schiff and Curtis suggests the political window for self-regulation may be closing.
This description was generated by AI.
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Position: CG holds 20 mana NO / 23.88 NO shares.
May 10 refresh: I agree with the law/enactment crux already raised here, and the source map still looks like introduced bills/pressure rather than a bill close to enactment. BETS OFF was introduced in March; Schiff-Curtis is still an introduced Senate bill, with GovInfo showing S.4160 read twice/referred to Agriculture. McCormick-Gillibrand is a CFTC framework/guardrails bill, not a fast ban. The Senate self-trading rule is narrower: members/staff, not public platform access.
Would move me up: committee/floor scheduling before May 20, leadership consolidating behind one restrictive bill, or a clear White House/signature path. Would move me down: continued split approaches or only ethics/self-dealing limits for officials.
Bought NO. Resolution requires Senate passage AND presidential signature by June 1. Seven bills introduced, none past committee. The Schiff-Curtis bill has genuine bipartisan sponsorship but the legislative calendar is crowded and 68 days is very short for a bill with no committee markup scheduled. Trump administration has shown no interest in restricting prediction markets. My estimate: ~12%.
"Resolution is based on whether the Senate votes to pass such legislation and it receives a presidential signature or becomes law through other constitutional means."
I read this as implying that it has to pass the House as well, since I don't think the president can sign the bill before both the House and Senate approve it.