Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the U.S. Senate passes the BETS OFF Act (Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions), which would prohibit wagers on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome, or any other Senate-passed legislation that substantially restricts prediction markets before June 1, 2026. Resolution is based on whether the Senate votes to pass such legislation and it receives a presidential signature or becomes law through other constitutional means. Check the Senate's official voting records at Congress.gov for final passage votes.

Background

Senator Chris Murphy and House Representative Greg Casar announced their intent to introduce the BETS OFF Act after bettors cashed in on geopolitical conflicts, including joint strikes the US and Israel launched against Iran and the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Polling from Data for Progress reveals a majority of voters – including 61% of independents and 57% of Republicans – support banning wagers on potential government actions. At least six bills targeting prediction markets have been introduced in 2026, though most have originated in the House and have been led almost exclusively by Democrats. The Schiff-Curtis bill is the first to combine Senate-level authority with genuine bipartisan co-sponsorship, giving it a potentially clearer path through the Republican-controlled chamber.

Considerations

The Trump administration has thrown its support behind prediction markets as they face state-level challenges, and members of the Trump family are reportedly invested in at least one of the major platforms. Two competing coalitions have emerged, with the Coalition for Prediction Markets launching in December and arguing that their federal regulatory framework is "under attack" by states. The bipartisan Senate bill from Schiff and Curtis suggests the political window for self-regulation may be closing.

This description was generated by AI.