Will any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb before 2035?
Will any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb before 2035?
12
370Ṁ10392035
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Only counts a bomb hitting a city that people live in, like happened in WW2. Does not count a bomb targeting an abandoned city, or one that's only occupied by military forces as part of some war. Does not count an EMP hitting a city; must be a physical blast that does significant damage.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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