Will any city get nuked before 2040?
Will any city get nuked before 2040?
28
1kṀ11k2040
17%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb before 2035?
24% chance
What will be the next city to be nuked
If the US is nuked by 2050, which city will be nuked first?
Conditional on China invading Taiwan, will any city get nuked before 2040?
19% chance
Will Shanghai be nuked in 2025?
1% chance
Will a nuke nuke a nuke by 2030?
16% chance
What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)
Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2040?
3% chance
Will an offensive nuclear detonation occur by 2080?
44% chance
Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?
35% chance