takeoff.watch forecast: 15%. No company has mined any asteroid material yet. Current startup missions are only scouting or tech demos, and Metaculus puts any space mining (Moon included) turning a profit before 2050 at about 25%. Asteroids are a slower subset of that, so I estimate about 15%.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

I don't think delicate equipment and advanced techniques have been developed to extract minerals or materials from other planets or other space bodies. The first step to mining is prospecting, that is geoscientists identify anomalies in the soil, and vegetation, based on trace elements. As of today 2023, to my understanding, we are still exploring and understanding these out-of-earth bodies through Ariel and satellite imagery and primary research done by astronauts. My point is that we still have a couple of years ahead to fully explore and understand other planets before we can think of mining minerals from these planets or out-of-earth bodies. There is limited data available for asteroid mining to be profitable before 2050, mining is not a one-step process it is a multiple-step process with different methods incorporated depending on the mineral being mined, the geophysical properties of the area being mined, and hazardous properties.

if Elon actually achieved $10/kg to LEO with starship, then asteroid mining might be profitable