Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024?
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27
Ṁ1917
Jan 1
64%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_schema_challenge

Resolves positivly if a computer program exists that can solve Winograd schemas as well as an educated, fluent-in-English human can.

Press releases making such a claim do not count; the system must be subjected to adversarial testing and succeed.

(Failures on sentences that a human would also consider ambiguous will not prevent this market from resolving positivly.)

/IsaacKing/will-ai-pass-the-winograd-schema-ch

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/IsaacKing/will-ai-pass-the-winograd-schema-ch-d574a4067e75

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@IsaacKing how would you figure out whether this market resolves YES? if you want to give some ai like claude newsonnet a few winograd schemas, it's clear it can solve them correctly

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