If Eliezer thinks the project is hopelessly misguided, that's no good. If he thinks the project isn't going to work but was at least a noble effort, that's sufficient to resolve this to YES. In other words the project should be something relativly similar to what he would have done with those resources if he were put in charge. (Or perhaps he says it's a better idea than what he would have thought of himself.)

The total amount of funding must be at least $3 billion. In the event of gradual funding over time, this market can resolve YES if the project ever meets all three criteria at any point in its life.