OpenAI recently announced plans to transition into a for-profit entity and turn the non-profit into a separate organization that is funded via its OpenAI stock. From today's announcement:
“Our plan would result in one of the best resourced non-profits in history. The non-profit’s significant interest in the existing for-profit would take the form of shares in [OpenAI] at a fair valuation determined by independent financial advisors. This will multiply the resources that our donors gave manyfold.”
OpenAI is currently worth $175 Billion, and it’s expected that 10-25% of shares would go to the nonprofit in exchange for them giving up the control of the for-profit company they currently have.
OpenAI's stated mission is to "build artificial general intelligence (AGI) that is safe and benefits all of humanity", and the non-profit's Certificate of Incorporation states "The specific purpose of this corporation is to provide funding for research, development and distribution of technology related to artificial intelligence."
However, today's announcement conspicuously omits any mention of AI or AI safety work, stating "The non-profit will hire a leadership team and staff to pursue charitable initiatives in sectors such as health care, education, and science."
As a 501c3 they are not allowed to engage in any political lobbying or attempts to influence legislation.
This market will resolve YES if the OpenAI non-profit announces in 2025 that AI safety research will be one of their main funding areas.
Support for AI generally with no mention of safety will resolve this market NO. If the OpenAI restructuring does not happen and the OpenAI non-profit doesn't have any funds to allocate, this market resolves No.
1,000Ok this got a lot more complicated with the lawsuits. The Musk vs OpenAI trial is scheduled for fall 2025 but we probably won’t get a judgement until 2026, and the potential Delaware vs OpenAI or California vs OpenAI trials have yet to be scheduled. I said this market would resolve at the end of the year, but it seems unlikely now that the court cases will be resolved this year.
At the end of 2025, if a court has determined that the restructuring is illegal and they have to stay one entity, this resolves No, even if there is an appeal or other suits in progress. Similarly, if the latest OpenAI statement or rumors from a major publication like The Information is that the restructuring is cancelled, this resolves No.
Otherwise, I'll assume the restructuring is going forward, and will resolve this based on OpenAI statements about whether the nonprofit will fund AI Safety research.