Will Super Intelligence happen in China first?
4
100Ṁ3402035
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I am making this market vague on purpose
I will resolve YES only if one can comfortably argue super intelligence appeared in China 6 months earlier than in everywhere else on earth. Otherwise NO (say simultaneous)
One way to interpret is China will have dramatic lead over everyone else combined near the singular point. The gap has to be large enough to have a visible political/economic/social impact.
Resolve when we get ASI.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will China get AGI first?
27% chance
What organization will first create superintelligence?
Conditional on the US introducing AI safety regulations, will China "win the AI race"?
17% chance
Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
18% chance
Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?
35% chance
Will Bostrom's "Superintelligence" exceed its current popularity peak before 2028?
15% chance
Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
59% chance
Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025
33% chance
Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?
18% chance
Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?
38% chance