🏅 Top traders

Well, I still have no clue. General trolling is my best guess, along with maybe the stress of the situation making him act weird.

A bunch of people seem to want me to resolve this immediately, and I'm not sure why. To be clear, I don't expect to ever be certain (I can't read SBF's mind), but at the very least I can wait until the situation is no longer rapidly developing.

Many of the current answers are overlapping, so to make sure expectations are clear, I plan to resolve to one or more answers that seem like they were the primary factors. For example, if it ends up looking like the main purpose was trolling, and the reason he thought now was a good time to troll people on Twitter was because of having taken stimulants, I would resolve to both of those answers in some proportion.

(That is just an example, that's not me saying that's a likely resolution.)

@IsaacKing you could probably resolve this now? Would be nice for it to resolve before the charity option is gone :)

@finnhambly I still have no idea why they made that thread though.

Given the below discussion, I don't think we're going to get any more info here. Maybe wait another day and then resolve, or resolve N/A

@VivaLaPanda I don't see any reason to resolve so early on a developing situation. Right now, it's very unclear what Sam's mental state is or why on Earth they're making the choices they are. Waiting until it seems unlikely more information will be forthcoming is definitely the correct choice for this market.

@IsaacKing Any updates here?

@0o0 Unless I'm misunderstanding something, this is not an explanation, so I'm not sure why this is being bet so high.

@IsaacKing “What happened” was the start of his thread on his view on the situation. You could argue he did this for attention, but I think both reasons are valid.

@0o0 I'm referring to the reason for tweeting it out letter-by-letter. A description of the semantic content of the thread is not an explanation for why it was posted in such a strange method.

I don’t think you made it clear enough what you were referencing. I think most people would interpret it as why is he posting these tweets.

@0o0 I think it's pretty clear from context that I'm asking about the weirdness. It wouldn't make any sense to create a prediction market about the reasons behind a completely normal tweet thread explainer; obviously the reason there is just to provide information. (Also there were like 10 other markets on Manifold about the same thing.)

https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1592494814599479297

Looks like he posted an explanation.

@BenjaminIkuta That's not really an explanation of the tweet thread, it's an explanation of where FTX currently stands.

I guess it answers part of the question of what the thread was about. But it's not an explanation of why he tweeted HAPPENED as single letters per tweet, which was the weird part.

@IsaacKing could you maybe elaborate? This seems like the most straightforward reason for SBF's thread - to provide his recounting of events. The question wasn't about the single letters (which I think can be explained by SBF trying to add emphasis on this particular thread), but about the entire thread - the primary purpose of which clearly seems to be to provide a recounting.

@CarsonGale Most people who want to post an explanation don't begin it with individually-numbered single letters. None of SBFs past explanation threads have begun that way. So clearly "he wanted to post an explanation" can't be the reason, since if it were, he would have done the same thing on this past explainer threads.

@IsaacKing That doesn't seem clear to me - using an odd tweet format just emphasizes the explanation IMHO. Also presumably gave him some time to gather his thoughts.

Makes sense to give it some time, but this might already be resolvable via the recounting response.

@IsaacKing The alternative explanation there might be "to bring attention/stir buzz around a thread about his recounting of the events.", but imo that should still count for the resolution of "a thread about his recounting of the events."

@VivaLaPanda then "to bring attention to/stir buzz over his explanation" should be the answer — have added 🙂

@finnhambly problem is that's basically impossible to know

@VivaLaPanda it's up to Isaac's judgement of "best explanation" I guess!

@CarsonGale Note also the large and irregular gaps in between the posts. "For the attention" certainly seems plausible, but is by no means conclusive. Also, why would he want more attention just to say basically the same things he had already previous said?

Aha! This makes more sense.

https://twitter.com/illigmid/status/1592334048458084352

Fraudster til the end

@IsaacKing Still confused at this since it seems unlikely to fool all the bots and it reflects so poorly on him. But then again after deleting his "all assets fine" tweet I guess he isn't concerned about maintaining his innocence in the public eye anymore.

@IsaacKing I had suspicions that tweet was wrong. Usually for breaking news, anything plausible will start to trend. fyi tweets are automatically archived on archive.org by some bot, so it didn't make any sense.

https://twitter.com/cmsintern/status/1592372634955976704

Well, serves me right for trusting Twitter!

(Wait, aren't I still doing that?)