Is SBF probably a sociopath?
6
21
150
2027
25%
chance

High-grade sociopaths (aka psychopaths) feel no fear and tend to act recklessly.

This would be consistent with:

  • his lack of internal controls and records at his companies, even though Alameda at least was basically his family office, managing his personal money

  • the absolutely staggering failures that happened as a consequence of - or were enabled by - these lack of controls, and not only in 2022

  • allegations that he screwed his Alameda cofounders out of co-ownership of the company because the agreement wasn't put down in writing, due to a (as it turned out, unfounded) high degree of trust that they placed in him

  • the mass resignation that occurred early on in Alameda due to some of the above factors

  • people reporting that he was scary and vindictive (I do not think that people would say the same about all billionaries)

  • obviously, the whole situation with FTX, which I'm not going to describe here because it's still highly contested - and in particular SBF even contests some of the alleged "facts" entered into the bankruptcy court record by his successor as FTX CEO

  • him getting into a situation where a lot of people hate him and he is facing numerous serious criminal charges

Puzzling evidence, however is that:

  • SBF appeared to use money for political donations, not all of which was particularly to benefit him and his businesses, e.g. pandemic preparedness research had no plausible particular benefit for his business, over and above the general benefits that it would have provided to everyone

  • SBF appeared to use money for philanthropic donations to effective altruist charities and organisations

  • SBF appears to be a hardcore utilitarian

Perhaps, to square the circle, he's a new, heretofore-undiscovered subspecies of psychopath: an altruistic psychopath? A utilitarian psychopath?

In the absence of a determination by a forensic psychiatrist, this market will be resolved by my best judgement (although I am not a psychiatrist) based on the evidence adduced at trial and any biographies.

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predicts YES

SBF was asked by his (former?) friend, the journalist Kelsey Piper about what he had previously said about not doing unethical things for the greater good, and he said it was "woke" nonsense that he hadn't really believed. It is, however, unclear to me what he meant by this exactly. Maybe it just reaffirms that he is indeed a naive hardcore utilitarian. But if so, it seems to me that he believes that lying, cheating and stealing could be good if the good achieved by so doing was compelling enough.