This market will resolve to YES if by March 30th 2026, Sam Bankman-Fried is vindicated. This doesn't necessarily mean that Sam will be proven innocent, but if the public discourse forgives him somehow, this market will be resolved to YES.
This market will involve considerable judgment, and as always I won't bet.
Some ideas of people that once were vindicated
After almost blowing up the bank Salomon Brothers doing a small fraud, John Meriwether was vindicated and raised billions to his fund Long Term Capital Management.
After being caught on the wrong side of the trade on Valeant, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman was vindicated by shorting the market during the COVID-19 bear market in 2020
After being imprisoned for corruption charges, President Lula was vindicated by winning the 2022 Brazilian elections
After blowing up WeWork, Adam Neumann raised $350M for his new startup
After being fired from Apple, Steve Jobs created a very successful movie studio called Pixar and then was later hired again to fix the mess of his predecessor and ultimately changed the world by helping to create the iPhone
I'll intentionally leave as an open question what would mean vindication for SBF case and we can comment the news flow and you guys keep asking me. But if the Pope tweets about Sam calling "a great dude", or Sam successfully IPOes FTX or wins the election to be the new governor of Florida, this would definitely mean vindication.
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The format of this question gives a lot of ways for him to be "vindicated". In the long term, I think it's very possible, even likely, that he can raise funds again or start a new business or even a meaningful philanthropic org. He has notoriety, decent technical chops, and I think can pull off the "I was trying to do the right thing" story if he played his cards right. So, if the timeline was longer, I would probably bet YES.
However, it's unlikely that he will manage to do any of those things from within jail. So, based on the timeline of this question, this is more of a bet on a successful appeal within the next year AND things going right for him enough to rehabilitate his image after getting out. Seems very very unlikely.
This is a really strange use of the word vindicated. I wouldn't call virtually any of these "the public discourse forgiving the person".