Resolves YES if SBF personally drained FTX's funds or knowingly and willfully collaborated with someone who did. Resolves NO if he was uninvolved, fell prey to social engineering, left the private keys out on the coffee table when someone came over, etc.
The hack in question refers to the November 11th transfer out of $600 million in funds.
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@Gen I haven't looked into this at all, is this credible? If so should be NO. I think Aryeh is still active though.
@IsaacKing True, thanks for pointing that out. @zax can resolve it. Mostly didn't want to extend it another year lol, I think that happened in 24 and 25
@JonasVollmer I haven't been following the story much in the last year. Is there any credible reporting on the identity of the hacker (possibly agnostic as to SBF's involvement)? I'd feel okay resolving to NO or to some single-digit probability in that case. If it's totally unknown I'm not sure how to move forward.
@AryehZax I have not seen anything definitive, though I also haven't been following it closely. Personally I'd just leave the market open until we have a clearer answer.
@jacksonpolack I don't see how it makes sense to say "we don't know the answer, therefore we should assume [specific answer]".
