What is Emmett Shear's p(doom) within the next 50 years?
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150Ṁ155resolved Jan 27
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If they make a clear statement of their belief, I'll resolve to that. Otherwise I'll resolve to my best guess at market close.
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@rockenots I'll take the geometric mean. (Unless there's some compelling reason to take something else.)
@IsaacKing Do statements in the past count, they claimed a range of 5% to 50%, which would make this resolves as 15-16%.
@TobiasH How long ago? Past statements can count if I don't have anything better, but I'd like something recent at least.
@IsaacKing https://twitter.com/liron/status/1726473187880468827 I think the excerpt is from this podcast from around 5 months ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICnFtfN-sUc
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