Were there at least 200 deaths in the Gaza al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion?
28
147
530
2025
74%
chance

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Ahli_Arab_Hospital_explosion

Resolves once the death count no longer seems too contested.

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bought Ṁ20 of YES

No Wikipedia update to the estimates of death totals has occurred for a while; even if the 471 number is rejected the totals would be at least 200, and the actual number is also higher. The Wikipedia discussion appears to be entirely about whether there is a a reliable unbiased source that says there is no dispute as to the source of the munition.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

None of the sources currently listed have a mean of less than 200

bought Ṁ40 of YES

Only one source has a range below 200 at this time, and that’s 100-300. It seems likely that any further attempts to count the dead will not be able to distinguish those killed from the explosion in question from ones killed later.

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