IsaacKing avatar
closes Jan 1, 2023
This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ50 per person.
64%
chance

If any non-bot participant placs one or more bets on YES that total more than Ṁ50, I reserve the right to resolve the market to either N/A or to NO, in whatever way best punishes the user(s) who placed those invalid bets.

All my markets of this type with various maximum mana investments:

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MartinRandall avatar

"free money" group, but is that if I bet yes or no?

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
bought Ṁ250 of YES

Bruh

IsaacKing avatar

Oh god, what is even going on here. I stopped paying attention to this market for a while. How does it have 134 traders‽

IsaacKing avatar

@IsaacKing How on earth am I supposed to resolve this

Hjalti avatar
Hjalti
bought Ṁ50 of YES

@IsaacKing resolve it as yes so i get money 🔥

Sinclair avatar

probably because it was trending. it is the inevitable fate of a meta market is to attract a lot of activity 😔

Sinclair avatar

few people know how to forecast but everyone knows how to pump ponzis / prisoner's dilemmas

GregoryLu avatar
Gregory Lu
is predicting YES at 59%

@IsaacKing you need to set a deadline

Sinclair avatar

funlisted because meta

ms avatar
Mikhail Samin
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

If the market resolves to NO, I'll tip M$52 to the first non-bot account to bet M$51 on YES.

ms avatar
Mikhail Samin
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

Edit: I'll tip M$60.

ms avatar
Mikhail Samin
is predicting NO at 79%

EDIT 2: If the market resolves to N/A, I'll also tip M$70 to the first non-bot account to bet M$51 on YES. So to punish them the most, @IsaacKing will need to resolve the market to NO.

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall
is predicting YES at 47%

How can M71 of profit be compared to you who have 1,000 shares of NO?

ms avatar
Mikhail Samin
is predicting NO at 61%

@XComhghall I haven’t placed any invalid YES bets to punish me

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall
is predicting YES at 61%

@ms Max position Ṁ50 per person. You placed a lot of invalid NO bets.

ms avatar
Mikhail Samin
is predicting NO at 61%

@XComhghall The description explicitly says that the max YES position is M$50 per person.

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall
is predicting YES at 61%

@ms The title explicitly says Max position Ṁ50 per person.

ms avatar
Mikhail Samin
is predicting NO at 61%

@XComhghall The description specifically says “If any non-bot participant placs one or more bets on YES that total more than Ṁ50”. The title says “this market resolves to yes. max position…”, referring to the maximum stake someone can have on the market resolving to yes.

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall
is predicting YES at 57%

@ms The title specifically says “Max position Ṁ50 per person”, referring to the maximum stake someone can have on the market. The description says “If any non-bot participant placs one or more bets on YES …”, reiterating the maximum stake someone can have on the market resolving to yes.

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
bought Ṁ200 of NO

@LoeiLoeijems bet M$500. I'm not Loei and I don't think they were motivated by my bribe.

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
bought Ṁ5 of NO

If this markets ends up resolving NO, I'll tip M$10 to the first person who made a single YES bet of >M$50.

IsaacKing avatar

@Yev I thought someone might try something like this. But I think having the freedom to resolve the market however I please guarantees that the saboteurs can't do better than break even.

MartinRandall avatar

@IsaacKing "However you please" doesn't match market description or title.

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
is predicting NO at 80%

@MartinRandall

If any non-bot participant placs one or more bets on YES that total more than Ṁ50, I reserve the right to resolve the market to either N/A or to NO

That's almost the same as "However I please", except it doesn't allow PROB

MartinRandall avatar

@Yev I think

in whatever way best punishes the user(s) who placed those invalid bets.

is best read as requiring resolution in the way that best punishes the user(s) who placed the invalid bets.

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall
is predicting YES at 47%

Clearly YES is more punishing. Besides, you may be flagged for resolving incorrectly if you resolve to NO. The guidelines have been updated.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@XComhghall If only yes bets can be invalid then resolving no punishes all the invalid bets. It also punishes some valid bets, alas, but that's implicit in the market description.

The market title is a problem. I added the misleading title group but it was removed.

ms avatar
Mikhail Samin
is predicting NO at 61%

@IsaacKing Do you want to punish the holders of YES with >M$50 positions? If so, the holders of NO can lawfully manipulate the market participants into holding >M$50 of YES and suffering more from the market resolving to No then from the market resolving to N/A. Which I think is the stable equilibrium here.

ManifoldDream avatar

This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ50 per person., 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition