This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ20 per person.
➕
Plus
49
Ṁ1458
resolved Jan 29
Resolved
YES

If any non-bot participant placs one or more bets on YES that total more than Ṁ20, I reserve the right to resolve the market to either N/A or to NO, in whatever way best punishes the user(s) who placed those invalid bets.

All my markets of this type with various maximum mana investments:

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Basic scripted API check results – no guarantees, but it passes sanity checks. Bots and NO (net) positions were filtered out, and only YES accounted. How much mana did each group bet in total:

  `valid YES bets?` `how much at stake`
  <lgl>                           <dbl>
1 TRUE                             571.

How many people are on each side:

  `valid YES bets?` `how many people`
  <lgl>                         <int>
1 TRUE                             35

Transgressors (none):

character(0)

Likewise, @IsaacKing, this one seems easy – ready to resolve YES, because no one broke the rules.

@yaboi69 Nope, Alex Rockwell and Courier Six both broke the rules, but they also both sold out at a loss, so I agree this can safely resolve YES.

Alright, here's what seems fairest to me:

  1. Get a list of everyone who placed invalid bets on YES.

  2. Check to see how much mana those users would collectively lose from a YES or NO resolution. If they would lose the most from a NO resolution, then:

  3. Get a list of everyone who did not place any invalid bets on YES.

  4. Check to see how much those users would collectively lose from a NO resolution.

  5. If the invalid bettors would lose more than the valid bettors, resolve to NO.

  6. Otherwise, resolve to YES.

However, that also seems like it would take a lot of work. I'd have to write a script to download the trading history, calculate who placed invalid bets and how much they stand to lose each way. I don't want to lose several hours to this, so I'm also thinking about doing something simpler like just resolving to YES. (Which is allowed per the description.)

Thoughts?

predicted YES

When does this resolve?

There's an m40 yes bet

This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ20 per person., 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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