This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ1 per person.
Basic
45
Ṁ315
resolved Jan 31
Resolved
NO

If any non-bot participant placs one or more bets on YES that total more than Ṁ1, I reserve the right to resolve the market to either N/A or to NO, in whatever way best punishes the user(s) who placed those invalid bets.

All my markets of this type with various maximum mana investments:

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predicted NO

Basic scripted API check results – no guarantees, but it passes sanity checks. Bots and NO (net) positions were filtered out, and only YES accounted. How much mana did each group bet in total:

  `valid YES bets?` `how much at stake`
  <lgl>                           <dbl>
1 FALSE                            50  
2 TRUE                             28.0

How many people are on each side:

  `valid YES bets?` `how many people`
  <lgl>                         <int>
1 FALSE                             4
2 TRUE                             30

Transgressors:

"cos"                       "Degerzith"                 "Dorothy Green"             "Unconditional Probability"

Not sure what conclusions to draw here. @IsaacKing. I mildly lean toward NO, because individual losses of compliant ones are pretty insignificant, even if they’re more numerous.

@yaboi69 Your results are missing moneylab. I think your script is failing to account for everyone who currently holds no shares in either direction?

It looks to me like there were 6 users who placed invalid bets:

Alex Rockwell

Dorothy Green

Cos

Unconditional Probability

Moneylab

Degerzith

Those users collectively hold 91 YES shares. Therefore the best way to punish them would be to resolve this market to NO.

Any objections?

predicted NO

@IsaacKing For all these markets collectively, what about a solution where you check if the “cost” of harming good-faith participants outweighs the “benefit” of punishment. E.g., avoid “NO” if total losses of compliant participants > total losses of transgressors.

@yaboi69 Hmm, that seems reasonable. There are only 28 validly-held YES shares among non-bot users in this market, so I think it should still resolve to NO under that interpretation. (While I'm not trying to punish the bots, I'm not particularly inclined to reward them either.)

predicted NO

Yeah. On the other hand, (I would benefit from “No”, so) maybe this is a bad idea. No need to hurry. You could even tabulate the bets and compute a just solution using a script with some complicated formula

The links in the description point to the old markets.

Fixed

This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ1 per person., 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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