If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ618
2034
26%
chance

Assumes that I do attempt to put them out after 1 minute has elapsed.

Only applies to a curtain still hanging up normally by the window, not one that gets moved elsewhere.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
reposted

this deserves to be a prize market

Fires do spread quite fast

https://youtu.be/0nAPEoPKUSY

I have a terminal value to curtains being fireless

Do you have any...

  1. ...fire alarm in the house?

  2. ...automatic water system that activates in case of fire?

  3. ...mechanism that automatically notifies others in case of fire?

predicts NO

@Pazzaz There's probably a fire alarm somewhere; at least I remember there was when we bought the house. If the house catches on fire I assume some of the pipes will melt and release the water inside. And our house is very visible to the neighbors. So I think we're good on all three counts.

I think it depends a lot on how you put them out after the minute. Are you standing there waiting with a fire extinguisher? Or are you planning to blow it out?

predicts NO

@EliTyre To be fair to the fire, I think I need to not prepare in advance. Once the minute is up I can run and grab a fire extinguisher if I have one lying around normally, but I can't go out and buy one just for this.

@IsaacKing Do you have a fire extinguisher in your kitchen?

predicts NO

@IsaacKing I advise you to get one, but less firmly than I advise you to set your curtain on fire for manifold clout. [EDIT: to NOT set your curtain on fire! Please do not do this!]

@DanielFilan Oops see edit

why?

@SavioMak Perfect comment.

predicts NO

@SavioMak Any reason qualifies

Do the resolution criteria apply to accidental or unintentional setting on fire?

predicts NO

@Elspeth Yes, but only if I'm there to try to do something about it after 1 minute.

This video gives me very strong priors that sometimes fires just go out

You shouldn't do that.

predicts NO

@CertaintyOfVictory 65% chance it goes fine

@IsaacKing What material are your curtains? Are they hanging?

predicts NO

@CertaintyOfVictory Some sort of cloth, not sure. Picture in response to Forrest's comment.

@CertaintyOfVictory You made me laugh. : D

@EliTyre Fancy seeing you here, I like your blog :)

@IsaacKing house not burnt down != fine.

Let us see the curtain

predicts NO

Here's one, though this market applies to all curtains in my house, not just this one. (They're all the same style though.)

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules