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MANIFOLD
Will Isaac King set his curtain on fire?
3
á¹€100á¹€71
2035
13%
chance

See: /IsaacKing/if-i-set-my-curtain-on-fire-and-don

Resolves whenever that market resolves. If it gets extended, so will this market.

If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for at least 1 minute, this resolves YES. If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, it will resolve to whatever percentage of a minute the curtain was on fire for (e.g. 30 seconds = 50%). If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, but does not know/did not record how long, it will resolve NO.

This market will also resolve NO if the linked market closes without evidence that Isaac has set his curtain on fire, if the linked market N/As, or if Isaac states that he will never set his curtain on fire.

If the linked market closes with no indication that Isaac is actively planning to ignite his curtain, I will resolve NO. Anything that happens after that can be up to another market. If there is indication that Isaac is actively planning to ignite his curtain, I will extend.

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There we go. I think we've patched the bugs out of this market now. Good job, team.

@Quroe thanks Q remind me not to make any funny markets right before bed next time

@PhilipDowdell The only thing to fear now is Isaac setting the close date of that market to year 9999. Then we are screwed.

Unless, of course, you want to put in a contingency for that too.

@Quroe if he does that ill wait patiently

@PhilipDowdell Oh no. Is this implicitly a death market?

@Quroe if Isaac sets the close date to 9999 i'm gonna be there to see it end and i give that the 100 percent Phil guarantee

If Isaac dies without setting his curtain on fire then yeah it's a NO

@PhilipDowdell May your immortality be non-cursed.

In what world does this market resolve NO?

@Quroe If the linked market ever resolves NO, or if Isaac says clearly that he will never set his curtain on fire.

@PhilipDowdell Sigh

So we're doing this one again with Isaac.

/IsaacKing/will-this-market-resolve-8dbb13ac33cd

Wait, so if his curtains alight, his house does not burn down, and he resolves it NO, then this market resolves NO?

@Quroe Oh, my bad, I totally misphrased. It should be if the linked market ever closes without evidence that Isaac has set his curtain on fire or N/As

@PhilipDowdell Just to confirm: when you say "closes", then does this mean that if it's extended after being in a closed state, then this market still resolves NO?

What if market closes, then extended, then ignition?

@Quroe If the linked market closes with no indication that Isaac is actively planning to ignite his curtain, I will resolve NO. Anything that happens after that can be up to another market. If there is indication that Isaac is actively planning to ignite his curtain, I will extend.

does it have to be for 1 minute at least

@strutheo I think it should resolve 100% if it's for at least 1 minute and then for amounts of time lower than that it should be the percentage of a minute, e.g. 30 seconds =50%. If there's not a confirmed time of burning but it's less than a minute I'd want to resolve NO. He needs to commit to this.

This feels like the funniest condition to me but let me know if it seems too complex or stupid.