Will Isaac King set his curtain on fire?

Question

See:  @/IsaacKing/if-i-set-my-curtain-on-fire-and-don

Resolves whenever that market resolves. If it gets extended, so will this market.

If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for at least 1 minute, this resolves YES. If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, it will resolve to whatever percentage of a minute the curtain was on fire for (e.g. 30 seconds = 50%). If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, but does not know/did not record how long, it will resolve NO.

This market will also resolve NO if the linked market closes without evidence that Isaac has set his curtain on fire, if the linked market N/As, or if Isaac states that he will never set his curtain on fire.

If the linked market closes with no indication that Isaac is actively planning to ignite his curtain, I will resolve NO. Anything that happens after that can be up to another market. If there is indication that Isaac is actively planning to ignite his curtain, I will extend.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (27 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).