If I play Kung Fu Chess against someone who's rated at least 1800 in regular chess, will I win?
If I play Kung Fu Chess against someone who's rated at least 1800 in regular chess, will I win?
7
170Ṁ241
2030
33%
chance

Resovles based on the first such game that happens.

I won't collude with them to throw the game, but I might manipulate this market in other ways, like practicing beforehand, or finding an 1800 player who is really bad at Kung Fu Chess.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
2y

My chess rating is about 1400

2y

@IsaacKing For reference, in regular chess playing against someone with a rating difference of 400 would give you about 8% win rate

2y

@AmmonLam Wow, that high? I figured it'd be <2%.

predictedYES 2y

Last time I played an 1800 I was effortlessly crushed.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules