If I play Kung Fu Chess against someone who's rated at least 1800 in regular chess, will I win?
7
26
170
2030
33%
chance

Resovles based on the first such game that happens.

I won't collude with them to throw the game, but I might manipulate this market in other ways, like practicing beforehand, or finding an 1800 player who is really bad at Kung Fu Chess.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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My chess rating is about 1400

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@IsaacKing For reference, in regular chess playing against someone with a rating difference of 400 would give you about 8% win rate

bought Ṁ7 of YES

@AmmonLam Wow, that high? I figured it'd be <2%.

predicts YES

Last time I played an 1800 I was effortlessly crushed.