If a third party starts allowing Manifold users to cash out their mana for real money, will Manifold shut it down?
If a third party starts allowing Manifold users to cash out their mana for real money, will Manifold shut it down?
8
170Ṁ908
2028
93%
chance

A few people have talked about instituting a way to exchange mana for real money, such as here:

https://manifold.markets/Nils/will-there-be-a-way-to-exchange-man

https://manifold.markets/MichaelWheatley/how-much-is-m100-worth

The condition is met if there's an easy way for users to turn their mana into USD or another real-world currency. (Not crypto.) "Easy" meaning that someone with no special technical skills can reasonably and reliably do it in under a few minutes of work per transaction.

If Manifold themselves finds a way to offer this, that doesn't count. It must be some third party.

This market resolves once either of the following is true:

  • Someone creates such a system. (Resolves based on whether they're made to stop within a month.)

  • Manifold impliments a blanket ban on such practices. (Resolves to YES.)

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predictedYES 1y

This market resolves once either of the following is true:

  • [...]

  • Manifold impliments a blanket ban on such practices. (Resolves to YES.)

This has already happened. @SirSalty can you attest that there's now a ban on selling mana to people?

predictedYES 1y
1y

How is Manifold not a scam? You give them money for Mana and can never cash out??? How is this legal.

1y

Dont think so, hopefully it will be first party

3mo
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