How many factual errors will be found in my Manifold FAQ?
11
14
Ṁ100
resolved Mar 9
Resolved as
35%
As mentioned in https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-i-make-an-faq-about-manifold-fea, I made an FAQ about how Manifold works, which is here: https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/ This market resolves to PROB 10x the number of factual errors in the FAQ that are pointed out to me by the close date. (e.g. 2 errors resolves to 20%, 10 or more errors resolves to 100%.) Other issues such as grammatical errors, poor wording, broken links, or missing information do not count as factual errors, though I'd still appreciate being notified of them. If a feature changes in between now and the close date, such that the FAQ was correct when this market opened but then became incorrect later on, that also does not count as a factual error. Mar 6, 10:43pm: If something is right on the border of being a factual error, I'll count it as half an error. So for example, 4 clear factual errors and 3 questionably factual errors will resolve to 55%.
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bought Ṁ1 of YES
@M You get access to the information that an error was found earlier than everyone else, so I think you could make a profit by correcting the market upwards 10%. Free answer is a decent system too, I don't remember why I didn't go with that.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
We’ve got one error so far. There’s still time, but it seems to me like the market should be closer to 10%.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I suspect that free answer, with promise to select the most constructive ones would be more effective (I have no idea how I can safely get income by finding one more error)
bought Ṁ1 of YES
This is super great (and I love the concept of using a market as a mechanism for identifying errors!) I've linked to this FAQ from our About Page (which is much more out-of-date than Isaac's)
bought Ṁ26 of NO
We have one current error, buying down to 20% (for one more error that hasn't been found yet) seems good.
sold Ṁ0 of NO
Ah yes @Conflux you're right, I for some reason was reading default. $10 is minimum for me as well. Not an error!
bought Ṁ1 of NO
On 2 I think you’re conflating the default and the minimum! Default is $100, minimum I think is 10.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
2. Hmm, I'll figure out which it is. Seems like this is probably an error then. 3. Ok, definitely an error. Thanks :)
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@IsaacKing 1. 👍 2. It's possible this was changed for new users at some point after I created my account, or maybe it just saves from your last created market? 3. Just the ones that are still unresolved. i.e. I have none currently showing despite many closed+resolved markets.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
@dglid 1. Not considering that an error, I think it's clear what's meant. 2. Interesting, it's M$ 10 for me. It might be proportional to that account's total funds? 3. Does this show all closed markets, or just ones that are still unresolved?
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I believe I found 3, but potentially just 2: 1. (the one that may not be counted as factually inaccurate): "Trading is anonymous by default. You'll only see their username if they leave a comment." Not true if you count creating the market in the first place as part of trading. 2. "why would I make it higher than the minimum of M$ 10?" - for me at least, the minimum I see when creating a new market is $100... 3. "Is there a way to see my closed markets that I need to resolve? - You'll get an automated email when they close. Other than that, no." Incorrect, this can be found at "https://manifold.markets/<username>?s=closed" implemented March 1st: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/915138780653051910/948399405084594206

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