By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
2) We are going to start running out of data to train large language models.
Matt C. Wilson
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
[Metaculus] Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?
Will I have access to a program that can reliably determine pronoun and verb referents by the end of 2023?
Will I make money offering language model finetuning as a service by the end of 2023?
Will Bing get a code interpreter? (2023)
Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?
Will more than 20 organizations publicly train large language models by 2024?
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
Will any country explicitly regulate the use of Large Language Models by 2024?
(M2000 subsidy) How many attendees will the inaugural Conference on Language Modeling (COLM) have in 2024 ?
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?
Will the US or China enact a moratorium of any kind on the training of large language models by the end 2023?
Will a non specialized AI assistant master French grammar rule of "L'accord du participe passé" at the end of 2025 ?
In 2023, will natural language begin to replace GUIs as the primary human-machine interface?
By 2027 will there be a language model that passes a redteam test for honesty?
In the year 2100, these will be the top 5 languages