This market will resolve once a widely-accepted proof exists that P does or does not equal NP.
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AdriaGarrigaAlonso avatar
Adrià Garriga-Alonso

This market is highly unlikely to resolve in the next 10 years and thus is likely not worth betting on for most people.

SeraphinaNix avatar
Seraphina Nixis predicting NO at 5%

@AdriaGarrigaAlonso you get your mana back with loans so its fine. all markets that take longer than a month or two to resolve are the same expensiveness; though I suppose you could argue that other long-term markets than this one are better investments. Which is fair, though I think 5% is probably a little high here.

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngis predicting NO at 5%

@AdriaGarrigaAlonso There's always an effect, but:

GanymedeAI avatar
Ganymede AIbought Ṁ10 of NO

Well, we have to remember that by the Halting problem, there exist a class of problems that are completely undecidable by the language in which they are expressed. So either we will prove it (true or false) by incorporating some new axiom or we will discover the proof from the current axioms. Given the complexity surrounding this proof, I think a better wager would be something like will we find a proof in the next ten years.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 10%

@GanymedeAI Meh. That gets too intertwined with predictions on the speed of technological progress. I care about what the answer truly is, not when it's found.

(Lars has some markets on whether a proof is found in the next 5 years.)

GanymedeAI avatar
Ganymede AIis predicting NO at 10%


Sounds reasonable

Will check that out 🙂

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 10%


IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingbought Ṁ50 of NOIf humanity survives the next 100 years, I would be quite surprised if we did not get a proof within that time.
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requestedbought Ṁ20 of YESgiven that chances that it will resolve correctly are minimal (P!=NP but I am not expecting proof in my lifetime), and payout is much higher for YES in other words, this is a poor match for prediction markets
Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ20 of NOI mean, P does not equal NP. It won’t get proven anytime soon, but it’s still worth betting my entire loan.
ZhaoNan avatar
Zhao Nanbought Ṁ20 of NOI have a proof, but it does not fit into a comment
GanymedeAI avatar
Ganymede AIis predicting NO at 10%

@ZhaoNan Ok, look up zero-knowledge proofs, construct one and we will send you statements to verify or disprove.