This market is highly unlikely to resolve in the next 10 years and thus is likely not worth betting on for most people.

@AdriaGarrigaAlonso you get your mana back with loans so its fine. all markets that take longer than a month or two to resolve are the same expensiveness; though I suppose you could argue that other long-term markets than this one are better investments. Which is fair, though I think 5% is probably a little high here.

Well, we have to remember that by the Halting problem, there exist a class of problems that are completely undecidable by the language in which they are expressed. So either we will prove it (true or false) by incorporating some new axiom or we will discover the proof from the current axioms. Given the complexity surrounding this proof, I think a better wager would be something like will we find a proof in the next ten years.

@GanymedeAI Meh. That gets too intertwined with predictions on the speed of technological progress. I care about what the answer truly **is**, not when it's found.

(Lars has some markets on whether a proof is found in the next 5 years.)

@ZhaoNan Ok, look up zero-knowledge proofs, construct one and we will send you statements to verify or disprove.