This market will resolve once a widely-accepted proof exists that P does or does not equal NP. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem
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"In this paper, by constructing extremely hard examples of CSP (with large domains) and SAT (with long clauses), we prove that such examples cannot be solved without exhaustive search, which is stronger than P ̸= NP."
[2302.09512] SAT Requires Exhaustive Search (arxiv.org)

Is it valid? I'm not qualified.

predicts NO

almost definitely not

predicts NO

Can't wait till someone buys 10000M worth of YES and everyone starts guessing if they have insider knowledge.

This market has a different concensus then these 2 https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np-537cbc88aa90. They predict an 11% - 2 % ratio on P=NP ending up true. Does anyone know how to do market abtirage?

predicts NO

@fejfo There's not enough mana in these markets to really be worth it, but I just fixed it for you. :)

This market is highly unlikely to resolve in the next 10 years and thus is likely not worth betting on for most people.

predicts NO

@AdriaGarrigaAlonso you get your mana back with loans so its fine. all markets that take longer than a month or two to resolve are the same expensiveness; though I suppose you could argue that other long-term markets than this one are better investments. Which is fair, though I think 5% is probably a little high here.

predicts NO

@AdriaGarrigaAlonso There's always an effect, but:

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Well, we have to remember that by the Halting problem, there exist a class of problems that are completely undecidable by the language in which they are expressed. So either we will prove it (true or false) by incorporating some new axiom or we will discover the proof from the current axioms. Given the complexity surrounding this proof, I think a better wager would be something like will we find a proof in the next ten years.

predicts NO

@GanymedeAI Meh. That gets too intertwined with predictions on the speed of technological progress. I care about what the answer truly is, not when it's found.

(Lars has some markets on whether a proof is found in the next 5 years.)

predicts NO


Sounds reasonable

Will check that out 🙂

predicts NO


bought Ṁ50 of NO
If humanity survives the next 100 years, I would be quite surprised if we did not get a proof within that time.
bought Ṁ20 of YES
given that chances that it will resolve correctly are minimal (P!=NP but I am not expecting proof in my lifetime), and payout is much higher for YES in other words, this is a poor match for prediction markets
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I mean, P does not equal NP. It won’t get proven anytime soon, but it’s still worth betting my entire loan.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I have a proof, but it does not fit into a comment
predicts NO

@ZhaoNan Ok, look up zero-knowledge proofs, construct one and we will send you statements to verify or disprove.

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