Will P vs NP be resolved before man lands on Mars?
131
17k
2222
27%
chance

resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first

resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical community

man lands on Mars when a live human body is separated from the Mars surface only by like a solid thing, such as a spaceship or spacesuit (edit: or both of course, but touching each other)

Close date updated to 2222-02-22 10:22 pm

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AI seems advancing fast enough on stuff like math proofs that it's plausible it'll do it in the next decade or two, mars landing seems much further off.

predicts YES

@ShakedKoplewitz my reasoning too :)

predicts YES

why did it settle onto 20% like it's some true probability lmao

@warty Huh?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing I was trying to nudge it but it felt like people decided it's 20 and would buy down. Well now there's some movement :) @MartinRandall don't think it applies here ;)

From your description, sounds like it can be any person, not necessarily limited to a “man”, yes?

@JimHays man is synonymous with humankind

predicts NO

@daniel There’s more inclusive synonyms though

I bet YES but then realized that we' could zolve this one easy by just landing a really big lego tower on marz with a guy standing on top of it so that's what I'm betting happens.

Related:

predicts YES

@IsaacKing this is already a joke market but that one is really pushing it 😂

Why does this close in 4 days?

predicts YES

@AnlAnar thanks, edited

my reasoning: idk about spacex progress but I'm not getting man-on-mars-soon vibes. but agi will come in a minute and solve math

@warty what if math is so hard that even with significantly qualitatively improved intelligence, an ai wouldn't be able to break new ground on the P=NP question ;)

... I mean, I mostly agree with you, though.