This market will resolve once a widely-accepted proof exists that P does or does not equal BPP.
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Related questions
Is Integer Factorization in P?
20% chance
Is Graph Isomorphism in P?
63% chance
Does EXP = PSPACE?
21% chance
If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?
45% chance
Will P vs PSPACE be resolved before P vs NP?
59% chance
P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)
5% chance
Does BPP = BQP?
8% chance
Is p = np?
9% chance