P = NP (will it be proven by April 2027) | Manifold

P = NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

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36

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2027

2%

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1M

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Will this statement be proven to the satisfaction of most mathematicians and computer scientists in 5 years? Apr 7, 12:55pm: Companion market here (For P != NP) https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np-537cbc88aa90

Mar 14, 4:41pm: ~~P = NP~~ → P = NP (will it be proven by April 2027)

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This title is highly misleading, would you mind fixing it?

@IsaacKing What's the problem and what do you suggest instead

@LarsDoucet This market can resolve NO even if P = NP.

@IsaacKing According to the description, it's actually asking whether this will be proven within ~4 years. That's what the title should say.

@LarsDoucet I get the impression that I may have come across as rude in my previous comments; is that also your impression? (If so, I'm sorry, that wasn't my intention.)

@IsaacKing It's fine, but "highly misleading" might not be the best thing to lead with ;) "The title is somewhat unclear, would you mind fixing it" is a less risky line to go with.

haha

If there's only a 12% chance that P = NP is true at all, 9% for a proof in the next 5 years seems much too high to me. https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/does-p-np

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