This can resolve yes from https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-rachelweinberg-marry-me
Is there not a timeliness factor missing from the criteria or is Isaac asking "If someone proposes marriage via Manifold, will the couple in question instantaneously and immediately break up?" As Isaac has pointed out the point in time of the proposal is a specific point in time and not any time after the proposal.
Otherwise it seems like the question might need to add some additional constraints... If a marriage proposal, made via Manifold, is accepted what are the odds that the couple is still together after X [days|months|years]?
Or
If a marriage proposal is made via Manifold what are the odds that the couple is still together after the creation datetime of the proposal market?
@MartinRandall Long enough that it doesn't seem like the proposal was the cause of the breakup.