The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relativly safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle class.
It does still count if it's only possible based on actions taken during childhood, such as hormones to change pelvis growth.
@LivInTheLookingGlass I'm no longer making markets on Manifold. Feel free to make one yourself. :)
@jonsimon Perhaps a failure to carefully read the desription? It does seem unlikely to be cheap and available even if possible. I don't think there's a huge economic incentive to develop this technology.
@jonsimon Yo, trans here (and new to the site!) There's surgeries to implant donor sexual organs right now, and you're betting that no progress will be made to make that affordable in the next two decades when there's already pushes towards biotech.
Also, the pelvis growth thing in the description above is partially irrelevant - hormonal therapy DOES change skeletal structure over time (I've lost 2 shoe sizes and about 3 inches of height, and some people who have been transitioned for more than 10 years have reported hip growth)
Either way, this market can only go up.