
At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
69
1kṀ93952028
48%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A duplicate of /ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-gary-marcus-still-be-a, with the ban on "bizarre hacking like tricks" removed and clearer resolution criteria.
This market resolves based on the behavior of all leading chatbots at the beginning of 2028. (Only ones that can actually be tested.)
Resolves YES if people can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which any leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.
Only the LLM portion of the chatbot is being tested here. Image-recognition and generation capabilities are not.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
82% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
59% chance
Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
25% chance
By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
11% chance
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
32% chance
Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
26% chance
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?
50% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
50% chance
By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
77% chance